Severe heatwaves in urban areas significantly threaten public health, calling for establishing early warning strategies. Despite predicting occurrence of heatwaves and attributing historical mortality, predicting an incoming deadly heatwave remains a challenge due to the difficulty in defining and estimating heat-related mortality. Furthermore, establishing an early warning system imposes additional requirements, including data availability, spatial and temporal robustness, and decision costs. To address these challenges, we propose DeepTherm, a modular early warning system for deadly heatwave prediction without requiring heat-related mortality history. By highlighting the flexibility of deep learning, DeepTherm employs a dual-prediction pipeline, disentangling baseline mortality in the absence of heatwaves and other irregular events from all-cause mortality. We evaluated DeepTherm on real-world data across Spain. Results demonstrate consistent, robust, and accurate performance across diverse regions, time periods, and population groups while allowing trade-off between missed alarms and false alarms.

International Journal of Applied Mathematics Volume 38 No. 5 s, 2025 ISSN: 1311 - 1728 (printed version); ISSN: 1314 - 8060 (on - line version) Received: August 0 7, 2025 550 Abstract The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their effectiveness. This study introduces a machine learning - based early warning system that utilizes real - time digital and macroeconomic signals to identify financial distress in near real - time. Using a panel dataset of 750 households tracked over three monitoring rounds spa nning 13 months, the framework combines socioeconomic attributes, macroeconomic indicators (such as GDP growth, inflation, and foreign exchange fluctuations), and digital economy measures (including ICT demand and market volatility). Through data preproces sing and feature engineering, we introduce lagged variables, volatility measures, and interaction terms to capture both gradual and sudden changes in financial stability. We benchmark baseline classifiers, such as logistic regression and decision trees, ag ainst advanced ensemble models including random forests, XGBoost, and LightGBM. Our results indicate that the engineered features from the digital economy significantly enhance predictive accuracy. The system performs reliably for both binary distress dete ction and multi - class severity classification, with SHAP - based explanations identifying inflation volatility and ICT demand as key predictors. Crucially, the framework is International Journal of Applied Mathematics Volume 38 No. 5 s, 2025 ISSN: 1311 - 1728 (printed version); ISSN: 1314 - 8060 (on - line version) Received: August 0 7, 2025 551 By implementing machine learning in a transparent and interpretable manner, this study demonstrates the feasibility and impact of providing near - real - time early warnings of financial distress. This offers actionable insights that can strengthen household resilience and guide preemptive intervention strategies. Keywords: Financial Distress, Early Warning Systems, Machine Learning, Digital Economy, Temporal Classification, Explainable AI 1. Introduction 1.1 Background and Motivation The prediction of financial distress has long been recognized as a critical element for ensuring economic resilience and mitigating systemic risk across households, firms, and national economies.

Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients often present with complex, overlapping signs of physiological deterioration that require timely escalation of care. Traditional early warning systems, such as SOFA or MEWS, are limited by their focus on single outcomes and fail to capture the multi-dimensional nature of clinical decline. This study proposes a multi-label classification framework to predict Care Escalation Triggers (CETs), including respiratory failure, hemodynamic instability, renal compromise, and neurological deterioration, using the first 24 hours of ICU data. Using the MIMIC-IV database, CETs are defined through rule-based criteria applied to data from hours 24 to 72 (for example, oxygen saturation below 90, mean arterial pressure below 65 mmHg, creatinine increase greater than 0.3 mg/dL, or a drop in Glasgow Coma Scale score greater than 2). Features are extracted from the first 24 hours and include vital sign aggregates, laboratory values, and static demographics. We train and evaluate multiple classification models on a cohort of 85,242 ICU stays (80 percent training: 68,193; 20 percent testing: 17,049). Evaluation metrics include per-label precision, recall, F1-score, and Hamming loss. XGBoost, the best performing model, achieves F1-scores of 0.66 for respiratory, 0.72 for hemodynamic, 0.76 for renal, and 0.62 for neurologic deterioration, outperforming baseline models. Feature analysis shows that clinically relevant parameters such as respiratory rate, blood pressure, and creatinine are the most influential predictors, consistent with the clinical definitions of the CETs. The proposed framework demonstrates practical potential for early, interpretable clinical alerts without requiring complex time-series modeling or natural language processing.

Respiration rate (RR) is an important vital sign for clinical monitoring of hospitalized patients, with changes in RR being strongly tied to changes in clinical status leading to adverse events. Human labels for RR, based on counting breaths, are known to be inaccurate and time consuming for medical staff. Automated monitoring of RR is in place for some patients, typically those in intensive care units (ICUs), but is absent for the majority of inpatients on standard medical wards who are still at risk for clinical deterioration. This work trains a neural network (NN) to label RR from electrocardiogram (ECG) telemetry waveforms, which like many biosignals, carry multiple signs of respiratory variation. The NN shows high accuracy on multiple validation sets (internal and external, same and different sources of RR labels), with mean absolute errors less than 1.78 breaths per minute (bpm) in the worst case. The clinical utility of such a technology is exemplified by performing a retrospective analysis of two patient cohorts that suffered adverse events including respiratory failure, showing that continuous RR monitoring could reveal dynamics that strongly tracked with intubation events. This work exemplifies the method of combining pre-existing telemetry monitoring systems and artificial intelligence (AI) to provide accurate, automated and scalable patient monitoring, all of which builds towards an AI-based hospital-wide early warning system (EWS).

The situation is evolving due to climate change and hence such systems should have the intelligent to continue to learn from recent climate behaviours. However, traditional single-hazard forecasting methods fall short in capturing complex interactions among concurrent climatic events. To address this deficiency, in this paper, we combine sequential deep learning models and advanced Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques to introduce a multi-hazard forecasting framework for agriculture. In our experiments, we utilize meteorological data from four prominent agricultural regions in the United States (between 2010 and 2023) to validate the predictive accuracy of our framework on multiple severe event types, which are extreme cold, floods, frost, hail, heatwaves, and heavy rainfall, with tailored models for each area. The framework uniquely integrates attention mechanisms with TimeSHAP (a recurrent XAI explainer for time series) to provide comprehensive temporal explanations revealing not only which climatic features are influential but precisely when their impacts occur. Our results demonstrate strong predictive accuracy, particularly with the BiLSTM architecture, and highlight the system's capacity to inform nuanced, proactive risk management strategies.

Climate change is a complex and multifaceted global phenomenon, characterized by long-term alterations in temperature, precipitation patterns, sea-level rise, and the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. These changes are driven by anthropogenic factors, such 1 as greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and industrial activities, which significantly alter the Earth's natural climate systems and render the occurrence of natural disasters inevitable. Climate-related catastrophes, such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, wildfires, heatwaves, and rising sea levels, have become increasingly frequent and severe in recent years, affecting billions of people globally, and this trend is expected to continue in the future. Indeed, the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) estimates that between 3.3 to 3.6 billion people are exposed to extreme risk as a result of climate-related disasters (Keim, 2021). Natural disasters alone impact approximately 200 million people annually, as reported by the United Nations (UN) (Dwivedi et al., 2022). Despite major investments in advanced early warning systems (EWSs) to lessen the effects of these natural catastrophes, there still needs to be more public awareness, effective interaction with various communities, and accurate prediction to minimize societal, economic, and environmental damage.

Abstract--Global population aging presents increasing challenges to healthcare systems, with coronary artery disease (CAD) responsible for approximately 17.8 million deaths annually, making it a leading cause of global mortality . As CAD is largely preventable, early detection and proactive management are essential. In this work, we introduce DigitalShadow, an advanced early warning system for CAD, powered by a fine-tuned facial foundation model. The system is pre-trained on 21 million facial images and subsequently fine-tuned into LiveCAD, a specialized CAD risk assessment model trained on 7,004 facial images from 1,751 subjects across four hospitals in China. DigitalShadow functions passively and contactlessly, extracting facial features from live video streams without requiring active user engagement. Integrated with a personalized database, it generates natural language risk reports and individualized health recommendations. With privacy as a core design principle, DigitalShadow supports local deployment to ensure secure handling of user data. The world's population is rapidly ageing [1], with significant implications for the prevalence of chronic diseases such as Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) [2], affecting not only individuals but also families and societies at large [3]. The number of older people is increasing at an unprecedented rate, projected to grow from approximately 761 million in 2021 to 1.6 billion by 2050, which would represent nearly 16% of the global population, according to the UN's W orld Social Report 2023 [4]. The aging population presents numerous challenges, including increased pressure on healthcare systems, pension schemes, and long-term care facilities, alongside potential economic consequences, which together fuel growing demand for healthcare services [5], [6]. With advancing age, people become more vulnerable to various critical diseases [7], such as CAD [8], stroke [9], cancer [10], and Parkinson's disease (PD) [11], [12], [13], leading to considerable morbidity and mortality [14].

Tracking financial investments in climate adaptation is a complex and expertise-intensive task, particularly for Early Warning Systems (EWS), which lack standardized financial reporting across multilateral development banks (MDBs) and funds. To address this challenge, we introduce an LLM-based agentic AI system that integrates contextual retrieval, fine-tuning, and multi-step reasoning to extract relevant financial data, classify investments, and ensure compliance with funding guidelines. Our study focuses on a real-world application: tracking EWS investments in the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Fund. We analyze 25 MDB project documents and evaluate multiple AI-driven classification methods, including zero-shot and few-shot learning, fine-tuned transformer-based classifiers, chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting, and an agent-based retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) approach. Our results show that the agent-based RAG approach significantly outperforms other methods, achieving 87\% accuracy, 89\% precision, and 83\% recall. Additionally, we contribute a benchmark dataset and expert-annotated corpus, providing a valuable resource for future research in AI-driven financial tracking and climate finance transparency.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance across natural language tasks, but their ability to forecast violent conflict remains underexplored. We investigate whether LLMs possess meaningful parametric knowledge-encoded in their pretrained weights-to predict conflict escalation and fatalities without external data. This is critical for early warning systems, humanitarian planning, and policy-making. We compare this parametric knowledge with non-parametric capabilities, where LLMs access structured and unstructured context from conflict datasets (e.g., ACLED, GDELT) and recent news reports via Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). Incorporating external information could enhance model performance by providing up-to-date context otherwise missing from pretrained weights. Our two-part evaluation framework spans 2020-2024 across conflict-prone regions in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. In the parametric setting, LLMs predict conflict trends and fatalities relying only on pretrained knowledge. In the non-parametric setting, models receive summaries of recent conflict events, indicators, and geopolitical developments. We compare predicted conflict trend labels (e.g., Escalate, Stable Conflict, De-escalate, Peace) and fatalities against historical data. Our findings highlight the strengths and limitations of LLMs for conflict forecasting and the benefits of augmenting them with structured external knowledge.

Weather forecasting has gradually been getting more and more sophisticated. It has also got far more important as the climate gets more unpredictable and extreme events threaten to cause massive economic damage and loss of life. So an early warning system is vital. Ever larger computer systems making millions of calculations over many hours are now part of the daily forecasting in most developed countries. Sadly large parts of the world, many very vulnerable to dangerous climate events, do not have the money, personnel or computing power to develop the 10-day forecasting system they need. But researchers at Cambridge University think they have found a solution by harnessing artificial intelligence.